From:
Evaggelos Geraniotis <evangeran@yahoo.com>
Subject:
[discussion] Fewer Jobs, Larger Deficits if Republicans Were in Charge
Date:
August 31st 2010
Friends
The attached excellent article from Newsweek (Aug 27) is one of the most detailed and informative written so far on comparing the proposed economic policies of the GOP (if they held power from Jan 2009 forward) and the actions taken or planned by the Obama Administration. Irecommend it most strongly for anyone who wishes to understand in depth what is going on with deficits, taxes and jobs as a result of the policies of the two
parties. It sheds bright light on the Republican misinformation and outright lies that have characterized the GOP opposition during the last 19 months as well as the GOP message and agenda for the 2010 elections.
With strong arguments, data and statistics the article presents a very clear picture of what the deficit and the jobs situation would be, if the policies the Republicans currently advocate had been enacted back in 2009. This is very illuminating and I urge you to read it so that it sheds away any doubts or confusion that may have been caused by the GOP propaganda and the Mainstream Media's laziness and lack of substance in information broadcasts these days. Before attaching the Article I provide a brief summary of its conclusions.
The comparison is carried out first for the budget deficit (over the next 10 years) for (i) The Stimulus, (ii) Health Care,, (iii) the Bush Tax Cuts.
For the Stimulus (Recovery Act) the result of the comparison is: Administration caused a $ 814 billion deficit and GOP $ 0 since they have advocated no stimulus to the economy. The risk of doing nothing is of course penalized in the jobs comparison below. Comparison: Admin $814 billion, GOP: $0
For Health Care the comparison shows that the Administration will save $ 30 billion (over 10 years) while GOP will increase the deficit by $ 455
billion. Comparison: Admin- $30 billion, GOP $455 billion
Extending the Bush tax cuts for only the middle class (incomes under $250,000), as the Administration wants to do, will increase the deficit by $ 3 trillion (over 10 years) while extending the tax cuts for all (including the wealthiest top 2%) as GOP wants will increase the deficit by $ 3.84 trillion.Comparison: Admin $3 trillion, GOP $3.84 trillion
Comparison Totals for Deficit: Admin $3.784 trillion, GOP $4.155 trillion. That is the GOP plan would increase the
deficit (over 10 years) by $371 billion, even if they had spent nothing to stimulate the economy after the 2008 Wall St meltdown.
Then the comparison is carried out for jobs. It pertains to the Stimulus and the extension of the Bush Tax Cuts, since these are the two major items that John Boehner (R-OH, House Minority Leader) emphasized in his recent Cleveland speech about the "GOP Plan" for the economy.
For the Stimulus the employment (new or retained jobs) estimates (by CBO, the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office) vary between 1.4 million and 3.3 million. The CBO info was
sent to you in my e-mail of Fri Aug 27 as part of my essay Stimulus Added Millions of Jobs. Splitting the difference between the two numbers of the CBO report results in Comparison: Admin 2.35 million jobs, GOP 0 jobs.
Regarding the extension of Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, which is the main difference between the Administration and the GOP proposals for taxes, the article after a very detailed and objective comparison reaches the conclusion that between 200,000 and 500,000 extra jobs may be created, if the tax cuts for the wealthy
are extended. Splitting the difference results in Comparison: Admin 0 jobs, GOP 350,00 jobs
Comparison Totals for Jobs: Admin 2.35 millions, GOP 350,00 jobs. That is the GOP plan would produce significantly fewer jobs at a time that Americans face a tough economy anda high unemployment rate.
Reality and facts have ceased to exist for the GOP and its followers, they are manufacturing their own facts !!! This should not be surprising; after using Fox News and Conservative Radio to soften up the intelligence of their viewers (typically blue collar whites and other low information or
uninformed viewers), anything they tell them, they will parrot it back without analyzing or questioning. Why should they care about the truth ? Truth is irrelevant, perceptions and gut feelings are everything !!! Glen Beck, after the speech at the Lincoln Memorial this weekend, is now the tele-evangelist in chief, not just the liar-in-chief and a self-enriching demagogue. This is what we have to fight against: ignorance, misinformation, outright lies and millions upon millions of corporate money spent by GOP and its Front Groups trying to make truths out of their distortions and falsehoods.
Keep Fighting !!! Help elect our Democratic Candidates !!! Only 62 Days Left to Nov 2 !!!
Estimates Say Fewer Jobs, Larger Deficits if Republicans Were in Charge
By Andrew Romano, Senior Editor Newsweek, Aug 27, 2010
Nothing is more important to Republican politicians these days than jobs and the deficit—at least according to Republican politicians. As House Minority Leader John Boehner put it in a "major economic address" on Tuesday, President Obama is "doing everything possible to prevent jobs from being created" while refusing to do anything at all "about bringing down the deficits that threaten our economy." Elect Republicans in November, Boehner assured his audience, and we will put an end to this insanity.
There's only one problem with Boehner's message: so far, the things that Republicans have
said they want to do won't actually boost employment or reduce deficits. In fact, much the opposite. By combing through a variety of studies and projections from nonpartisan economic sources, we here at Gaggle headquarters have found that if Republicans were in charge from January 2009 onward—and if they were now given carte blanche to enact the proposals they want to—the projected 2010–2020 deficits would be larger than they are under Obama, and fewer people would probably be employed.
The math is pretty straightforward. Let's start with the deficit. According to the Congressional Budget Office, Obama's stimulus plan is projected to increase budget deficits
over the next decade by $814 billion. That's a big number. But Republicans opposed the legislation refused to provide an alternative, and now insist that it's been a total failure. So let's be generous and subtract it from their side of the equation. The Obama deficit: $814 billion. The GOP deficit: $0.
Next up is health-care reform. Obama passed it; Republicans want to repeal it "lock, stock and barrel" The reason, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell explained in July, is that "we all know that it's going to increase the deficit." Unfortunately for the GOP, though, nonpartisan experts tend to
disagree.
Just this Tuesday, for example, the CBO released a letter saying that Obama's health-care-reform legislation would "reduce the projected budget deficit by $30 billion over the next 10 years,” while repealing the law would generate "an increase in deficits ... of $455 billion ... over that [same] period." Factor those figures into the equation and the Obama deficit falls to $784 billion. The GOP deficit, meanwhile, rises to $455 billion. Getting warmer.
The final piece of the puzzle is the Bush tax cuts. Obama wants to extend them for the 95 percent of taxpayers making less than $250,000 a year; Republicans want to extend them for everybody. How will these extensions affect the deficit? Glad you asked. According to data compiled by The Washington Post," the Democratic proposal would add about $3 trillion to the deficit during the next decade, while the
GOP plan would cost $ 3.84 trillion".
That brings the total Obama deficit to $3.784 trillion over 10 years, and its GOP counterpart to—drumroll, please—$4.155 trillion.
That's right. Even if we assume that the Republicans would've spent $0 to stimulate the economy in the wake of the largest economic collapse since the Great Depression—an
unlikely scenario, given the very real risks of inaction—their proposed policies would still produce a deficit $371 billion larger than President Obama's.
(Or $335 billion; Boehner also says he'd like to freeze nondefense discretionary spending at 2008 levels, which would save a grand total of $36 billion).
On jobs, it's a similar story. So far, Republicans have only said they'd do—or that they would've done—two large-scale things the Democrats haven't: (1) scrap the stimulus, and (2) extend the Bush tax cuts for Americans earning more than $250,000 so as not
to (in Boehner's words) "impose job-killing tax hikes on families and small businesses."
How would these measures affect employment? Regarding the stimulus, the answer is pretty clear. In a report out this week, the CBO estimates that between1.4 million and 3.3 million fewer people would be employed right now if the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act had never made it through Congress. Split the difference, and the pro-stimulus Obama moves ahead of the anti-stimulus GOP by about 2.35 million jobs. (A more dramatic estimate by the economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi [a McCain 2008 adviser] puts the number at 2.7 million, but we'll stick with the CBO stats for
now.)
The effect of tax cuts on job creation is a little trickier to tally. Extending all of them, according to the CBO, would lower unemployment by 0.3 to 0.8 percent over the next year or so; extending them solely for people making less than $250,000 would produce a somewhat smaller effect, for a difference of roughly 200,000 to 500,000 people. The problem, as economist William G. Gale of the Brookings Institution has noted, is that "of 11 potential stimulus policies the CBO recently examined, an extension of all of the Bush tax cuts ties for lowest bang for the buck." In fact, he continues, "letting the high-income tax cuts expire and using the money for aid to the states, extensions of unemployment insurance benefits, [or] tax credits favoring job creation ... would have about three times
the impact ... as continuing the Bush tax cuts."
In addition, it's unlikely that extending the cuts for the richest Americans would have much of an effect on small-business hiring, which is a claim that Republicans make with some regularity. Why? Because
of the taxpayers that report running small businesses on their taxes, only 2 percent fall into the top two income brackets. The other 98 percent of small-business owners make less than $250,000 a year and wouldn't pay higher taxes under Obama's plan.
History isn't on the GOP's side, either. If keeping the top marginal tax rate at 35
percent—the rate under Bush, and the rate that Republicans are fighting to preserve—spurs so much hiring, why didn't America experience any job growth at all during Bush's time in office? And if a top marginal tax rate of 39.6 percent—the rate under Bill Clinton, and the rate that Democrats are fighting to restore—is such a job killer, why did payrolls grow by 20 percent during the 1990s ?
The implication here isn't that higher tax rates equal more jobs. Far from it. But there's simply no evidence, either in the history books or the latest projections, to suggest that extending all of the Bush tax cuts would provide an employment boost large enough to offset the number of jobs that would've been lost if the GOP had succeeded in blocking the stimulus—let alone lasting
enough to justify adding another $700 billion to the deficit.
The bottom line, then, is that recent GOP proposals would produce fewer jobs and far larger deficits than the plans Obama has already passed or currently wants to pass. This isn't to say that the Republicans couldn't create jobs or cut the deficit if restored to power—just that right now, they've chosen to support policies that would prove less effective in both respects than the Democratic programs they so vehemently criticize.
On the trail, it's easy to talk about cutting pork, slashing taxes, and reducing "uncertainty." But if the party wants to provide voters with real alternatives on jobs and deficits, they should start talking about the sort of deep spending cuts and targeted tax incentives that might actually make a difference someday: reforming Medicare and Social Security, cutting defense spending,reducing payroll taxes, and creating tax credits for job creation. Otherwise, they're worse than what we have now.